Global ocean temperatures affect the quality of habitats for certain ocean-dwelling species. When temperature changes are too great for their continued thriving, these species move to seek other habitats better suited to their present and future living and reproductive success. One example of this is seen in the lobster population of Maine, USA, that is slowly migrating north to Canada where the lower ocean temperatures provide a more suitable habitat. This geographic population shift can significantly disrupt the livelihood of companies who depend on the stability of ocean-dwelling species.
Your team has been hired as consultants by a Scottish North Atlantic fishery management consortium. The consortium wants to gain a better understanding of issues related to the potential migration of Scottish herring and mackerel from their current habitats near Scotland if and when global ocean temperatures increase. These two fish species represent a significant economic contribution to the Scottish fishing industry. Changes in population locations of herring and mackerel could make it economically impractical for smaller Scotland-based fishing companies, who use fishing vessels without onboard refrigeration, to harvest and deliver fresh fish to markets in Scotland fishing ports.
Requirements
Build a mathematical model to identify the most likely locations for these two fish species over the next 50 years, assuming that water temperatures are going to change enough to cause the populations to move.
Based upon how rapidly the ocean water temperature change occurs, use your model to predict best case, worst case, and most likely elapsed time(s) until these populations will be too far away for small fishing companies to harvest if the small fishing companies continue to operate out of their current locations.
In light of your predictive analysis, should these small fishing companies make changes to their operations?
a. If yes, use your model to identify and assess practical and economically attractive strategies for small fishing companies. Your strategies should consider, but not be limited to, realistic options that include:
b. If your team rejects the need for any changes, justify reasons for your rejection based on your modeling results as they relate to the assumptions your team has made.
Use your model to address how your proposal is affected if some proportion of the fishery moves into the territorial waters (sea) of another country.
In addition to your technical report, prepare a one- to two-page article for Hook Line and Sinker magazine to help fishermen understand the seriousness of the problem and how your proposed solution(s) will improve their future business prospects.
Your submission should consist of:
Note: Reference List and any appendices do not count toward the page limit and should appear after your completed solution. You should not make use of unauthorized images and materials whose use is restricted by copyright laws. Ensure you cite the sources for your ideas and the materials used in your report.
Glossary
Fishery: The collection of fish of a given species and the area that they inhabit.
Habitat: The type of environment in which an organism or group normally lives or occurs.
Small Fishing Company: A company engaged in commercial fishing with limited or very limited financial resources to invest in new equipment/vessels.
Territorial Waters (sea): "as defined by the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, is a belt of coastal waters extending at most 12 nautical miles (22.2 km; 13.8 mi) from the baseline (usually the mean low-water mark) of a coastal state. The territorial sea is regarded as the sovereign territory of the state, although foreign ships (military and civilian) are allowed innocent passage through it, or transit passage for straits; this sovereignty also extends to the airspace over and seabed below." [Territorial Waters. (n.d.). In Wikipedia. Retrieved January 28, 2020, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters
全球海洋温度影响特定海洋生物种群的栖息质量。当温度变化对它们的持续繁荣产生过大冲击时,这些物种会迁移以寻找更适宜其当前以及未来生存和繁殖成功的栖息地。美国缅因州的龙虾种群逐渐向北迁移到加拿大,那里较低的海洋温度提供了更适宜的栖息地,这是一个例证。这种地理上的种群转移可能会显著地破坏依赖海洋生物稳定性的公司的生计。
你们团队被一家苏格兰北大西洋渔业管理联盟聘为顾问。该联盟希望更好地了解若全球海洋温度上升,苏格兰鲱鱼和鲭鱼可能从现有栖息地迁移的问题。这两种鱼类对苏格兰渔业的经济贡献甚大。鲱鱼和鲭鱼种群位置的变化可能会使得那些使用没有船载冷藏设备的苏格兰小型渔业公司在经济上不切实际,无法捕捞并将新鲜鱼类运送到苏格兰渔港的市场。
需求
构建一个数学模型,预测接下来50年这两种鱼类最有可能的栖息地,假设水温将发生足够的变化以致使种群迁移。
根据海洋水温变化的速度,使用你的模型预测最佳情况、最坏情况以及最可能的流逝时间,直至这些种群对小型渔业公司来说过于遥远,无法捕捞,前提是这些小型渔业公司继续在现有地点运营。
鉴于你的预测分析,这些小型渔业公司是否应该对其运营进行改变?
a. 如果是,请使用你的模型识别并评估对小型渔业公司来说实际且经济吸引力的策略。你的策略应该考虑但不限于包括以下现实选项:
将渔业公司的部分或全部资产从苏格兰港口的当前位置迁移,更靠近两种鱼类迁移的地点;
使用一定比例的小型渔船,在不需要陆基支持的情况下运营一段时间,同时仍然确保渔获的新鲜度和高品质。
你的团队可能识别和模拟的其他选项。
b. 如果你的团队认为无需任何改变,请根据你的模型结果以及团队所做的假设,提出拒绝改变的理由。
使用你的模型来解决如果一定比例的渔业进入另一个国家的领海(海域)时,你的提议将如何受到影响。
除了你的技术报告外,还要为《钩线与沉底杂志》准备一到两页的文章,帮助渔民理解问题的严重性以及你提出的解决方案如何改善他们未来的业务前景。
你的提交内容应包括:
注意:参考文献列表及任何附录不计入页面限制,并应出现在你的解决方案之后。你不应使用未经授权的图像与材料,其使用受版权法限制。确保你引用了报告中使用的想法和材料的来源。
术语表
渔业:特定物种的鱼类收集以及它们所栖息的区域。
栖息地:生物体或群体通常生活或出现的环境类型。
小型渔业公司:从事商业捕鱼业务的公司,用于新设备/船只的投资有限或非常有限。
领海(海域):“根据1982年联合国海洋法公约的定义,是沿海国家基线(通常为平均低水位线)最多12海里(22.2公里;13.8英里)的沿海水域带。领海被视为该国家的主权领土,尽管允许外国船只(军舰和民船)无害通过,或者对海峡实行过境通行;这种主权同样延伸到上空的空域和下方的海床。” [领海。 (n.d.)。在维基百科中检索。2020年1月28日,从https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters
检索]。
Wherever there are recreational sandy ocean beaches in the world, there seem to be children (and adults) creating sandcastles on the seashore. Using tools, toys, and imagination, beachgoers create sandcastles that range from simple mounds of sand to complicated replicas of actual castles with walls, towers, moats, and other features that mimic real castles. In all these, one typically forms an initial foundation consisting of a single, nondescript mound of wetted sand, and then proceeds to cut and shape this base into a recognizable 3-dimensional geometric shape upon which to build the more castle-defining features.
Inevitably, the inflow of ocean waves coupled with rising tides erodes sandcastles. It appears, however, that not all sandcastles react the same way to waves and tides, even if built roughly the same size and at roughly the same distance from the water on the same beach. Consequently, one wonders if there exists a best 3-dimensional geometric shape to use for a sandcastle foundation.
Requirements
Your submission should consist of:
Note: Reference List and any appendices do not count toward the page limit and should appear after your completed solution. You should not make use of unauthorized images and materials whose use is restricted by copyright laws. Ensure you cite the sources for your ideas and the materials used in your report.
在世界上的沙质海滩上,无论何处,似乎总能看到孩子们(以及成年人)在海岸边堆砌沙堡。海滩游客使用工具、玩具和想象力,创造出从简单的沙堆到复杂的实际城堡复制品的各种沙堡,这些沙堡拥有城墙、塔楼、护城河以及其他真实城堡的特征。在所有这些中,人们通常首先形成一个基础,由一个单一的、不起眼的湿沙堆构成,然后开始削减和塑形这个基础,使其成为一个可以辨认的三维几何形状,用作建造更多定义城堡特征的基础。
不可避免地,海浪的涌入以及潮汐的上升会侵蚀沙堡。然而,似乎并不是所有沙堡都以相同的方式对波浪和潮汐做出反应,即使它们的大小大致相同,且在同一海滩上距离水面的距离大致相同。因此,人们不禁想知道是否存在一个最佳的三维几何形状,用于沙堡的基础,以便它在经历波浪和潮汐的海岸上持续存在最长时间。
要求
在以下条件下,建立一个数学模型来确定用作沙堡基础的最佳三维几何形状,使其在经历波浪和潮汐的海岸上持续时间最长:
使用你的模型,确定最佳的沙水混合比例,假设你不使用其他添加剂或材料(例如塑料或木质支撑物,石头等)。
根据需要调整你的模型,以确定你在要求1中确定的最佳三维沙堡基础在下雨时受到的影响,以及在下雨时它是否仍然是用作城堡基础的最佳三维几何形状。
你还可能使用哪些其他策略(如果有的话)来使你的沙堡持续时间更长?
最后,为《阳光乐趣》假期杂志撰写一篇一到两页的文章,描述你的模型及其结果,其读者主要是非技术性的。
你的提交内容应包括:
注意:参考文献列表和任何附录不计入页数限制,应在你完成的解决方案之后出现。你不应使用未经授权的图片和材料,其使用受版权法律限制。确保你引用了报告中使用的思想和材料的来源。
In the online marketplace it created, Amazon provides customers with an opportunity to rate and review purchases. Individual ratings - called "star ratings" - allow purchasers to express their level of satisfaction with a product using a scale of 1 (low rated, low satisfaction) to 5 (highly rated, high satisfaction). Additionally, customers can submit text-based messages - called "reviews" - that express further opinions and information about the product. Other customers can submit ratings on these reviews as being helpful or not - called a "helpfulness rating" - towards assisting their own product purchasing decision. Companies use these data to gain insights into the markets in which they participate, the timing of that participation, and the potential success of product design feature choices.
Sunshine Company is planning to introduce and sell three new products in the online marketplace: a microwave oven, a baby pacifier, and a hair dryer. They have hired your team as consultants to identify key patterns, relationships, measures, and parameters in past customer-supplied ratings and reviews associated with other competing products to 1) inform their online sales strategy and 2) identify potentially important design features that would enhance product desirability. Sunshine Company has used data to inform sales strategies in the past, but they have not previously used this particular combination and type of data. Of particular interest to Sunshine Companyare time-based patterns in these data, and whether they interact in ways that will help the company craft successful products.
To assist you, Sunshine's data center has provided you with three data files for this project: hair_dryer.tsv, microwave.tsv, and pacifier.tsv. These data represent customer-supplied ratings and reviews for microwave ovens, baby pacifiers, and hair dryers sold in the Amazon marketplace over the time period(s) indicated in the data. A glossary of data label definitions is provided as well. THE DATA FILES PROVIDED CONTAIN THE ONLY DATA YOU SHOULD USE FOR THIS PROBLEM.
Requirements
Analyze the three product data sets provided to identify, describe, and support with mathematical evidence, meaningful quantitative and/or qualitative patterns, relationships, measures, and parameters within and between star ratings, reviews, and helpfulness ratings that will help Sunshine Company succeed in their three new online marketplace product offerings.
Use your analysis to address the following specific questions and requests from the Sunshine Company Marketing Director:
Write a one- to two-page letter to the Marketing Director of Sunshine Company summarizing your team's analysis and results. Include specific justification(s) for the result that your team most confidently recommends to the Marketing Director.
Your submission should consist of:
Note: Reference List and any appendices do not count toward the page limit and should appear after your completed solution. You should not make use of unauthorized images and materials whose use is restricted by copyright laws. Ensure you cite the sources for your ideas and the materials used in your report.
Glossary
Attachments
Problem_C_Data.zip: Contains the three datasets with customer reviews extracted from the Amazon Customer Reviews Dataset.
Data Set Definitions
Each row in the datasets represents the following columns:
marketplace
: Marketplace country code.customer_id
: Identifier for reviews by a single author.review_id
: Unique ID of the review.product_id
: Unique Product ID.product_parent
: Identifier for reviews of the same product.product_title
: Title of the product.product_category
: Major consumer category.star_rating
: 1-5 star rating.helpful_votes
: Number of helpful votes.total_votes
: Total votes received.vine
: Indicates Amazon Vine Voices status.verified_purchase
: Indicates a verified purchase.review_headline
: Title of the review.review_body
: Text of the review.review_date
: Date of the review.在亚马逊创建的在线市场中,亚马逊为顾客提供了对购买产品进行评分和评论的机会。个人评级——称为“星级评分”——允许购买者使用1(低评分,低满意度)至5(高评分,高满意度)的等级来表达他们对产品的满意程度。此外,顾客可以提交基于文本的信息——称为“评论”——来进一步表达对产品的看法和信息。其他顾客可以对这些评论是否有帮助进行评级——称为“有帮助度评级”——以协助他们自己的产品购买决策。公司使用这些数据来洞察他们参与的市场,参与的时机,以及产品设计特性选择的潜在成功。
阳光公司(Sunshine Company)计划在在线市场引入并销售三款新产品:微波炉、婴儿安抚奶嘴和吹风机。他们聘请了您的团队作为顾问,以识别过去客户对其他竞争产品提供的评分和评论中的关键模式、关系、指标和参数,以1)指导他们的在线销售策略,和2)识别可能增强产品吸引力的重要设计特性。阳光公司过去曾使用数据来指导销售策略,但他们以前没有使用过这种特定的数据组合和类型。对阳光公司特别感兴趣的是这些数据中的基于时间的模式,以及它们是否以有助于公司打造成功产品的方式相互作用。
为了协助您,阳光的数据中心为此项目提供了三个数据文件:hair_dryer.tsv,microwave.tsv和pacifier.tsv。这些数据代表了在亚马逊市场上出售的微波炉、婴儿安抚奶嘴和吹风机的顾客提供的评分和评论,涵盖数据中指示的时间段。同时提供了数据标签定义的词汇表。提供的数据文件包含了您在解决这个问题时应使用的唯一数据。
要求
分析提供的三个产品数据集,使用数学证据来识别、描述和支持有意义的定量和/或定性模式、关系、指标和参数,这些在星级评分、评论和有帮助度评级之间及其内部,将帮助阳光公司在其三个新的在线市场产品中取得成功。
使用您的分析来回答阳光公司市场总监提出的以下具体问题和请求:
确定阳光公司在在线市场上销售其三款产品后,最具信息性的基于评分和评论的数据指标。
在每个数据集中识别和讨论基于时间的指标和模式,这些可能表明产品在在线市场上的声誉正在增加或减少。
确定最能指示潜在成功或失败产品的基于文本的指标和基于评分的指标的组合。
特定的星级评分是否会激发更多评论?例如,在看到一系列低星级评分后,顾客是否更有可能写下某种类型的评论?
文本评论中的特定质量描述符,如“热情”、“失望”等,是否与评级水平强烈相关?
给阳光公司市场总监写一封一到两页的信,总结您的团队分析和结果。包括团队最有信心推荐给市场总监的结果的具体理由。
您的提交应包括:
附件
Problem_C_Data.zipProblem_C_Data.zip:包含从亚马逊客户评论数据集中提取的三个数据集。
数据集定义
每个数据集的每一行代表以下列:
marketplace:市场国家代码。
customer_id:单一作者评论的标识符。
review_id:评论的唯一ID。
product_id:唯一产品ID。
product_parent:同一产品评论的标识符。
product_title:产品标题。
product_category:主要消费类别。
star_rating:1-5星评分。
helpful_votes:有帮助的投票数。
total_votes:收到的总票数。
vine:表示亚马逊Vine Voices状态。
verified_purchase:表示已验证购买。
review_headline:评论的标题。
review_body:评论的文本。
review_date:评论日期。
As societies become more interconnected, the set of challenges they face have become increasingly complex. We rely on interdisciplinary teams of people with diverse expertise and varied perspectives to address many of the most challenging problems. Our conceptual understanding of team success has advanced significantly over the past 50+ years allowing for better scientific, creative, or physical teams to address these complex issues. Researchers have reported on best strategies for assembling teams, optimal interactions among teammates, and ideal leadership styles. Strong teams across all sectors and domains are able to perform complex tasks unattainable through either individual efforts or a sequence of additive contributions of teammates.
One of the most informative settings to explore team processes is in competitive team sports. Team sports must conform to strict rules that may include, but are not limited to, the number of players, their roles, allowable contact between players, their location and movement, points earned, and consequences of violations. Team success is much more than the sum of the abilities of individual players. Rather, it is based on many other factors that involve how well the teammates play together. Such factors may include whether the team has a diversity of skills (one person may be fast, while another is precise), how well the team balances between individual versus collective performance (star players may help leverage the skills of all their teammates), and the team's ability to effectively coordinate over time (as one player steals the ball from an opponent, another player is poised for offense).
In light of your modeling skills, the coach of the Huskies, your home soccer (known in Europe and other places as football) team, has asked your company, Intrepid Champion Modeling (ICM), to help understand the team's dynamics. In particular, the coach has asked you to explore how the complex interactions among the players on the field impacts their success. The goal is not only to examine the interactions that lead directly to a score, but to explore team dynamics throughout the game and over the entire season, to help identify specific strategies that can improve teamwork next season. The coach has asked ICM to quantify and formalize the structural and dynamical features that have been successful (and unsuccessful) for the team. The Huskies have provided data[1] detailing information from last season, including all 38 games they played against their 19 opponents (they played each opposing team twice). Overall, the data covers 23,429 passes between 366 players (30 Huskies players, and 336 players from opposing teams), and 59,271 game events.
To respond to the Huskie coach's requests, your team from ICM should use the provided data to address the following::
Your submission should consist of:
Note: Reference List and any appendices do not count toward the page limit and should appear after your completed solution. You should not make use of unauthorized images and materials whose use is restricted by copyright laws. Ensure you cite the sources for your ideas and the materials used in your report.
Attachment
2020_Problem_D_DATA.zip
fullevents.csv
matches.csv
passingevents.csv
README.txt
This data set was processed from a much larger dataset covering nearly 2000 matches from five European national soccer competitions, as well as the 2018 World Cup.
Glossary
Cited Reference
[1] Pappalardo, L., Cintia, P., Rossi, A. et al. A public data set of spatio-temporal match events in soccer competitions. Sci Data 6, 236 (2019).
Optional Resources
Research in football (soccer) networks has led to many articles that discuss related topics. A few articles are listed below. You are not required to use any of these sample articles in your solution, nor is it a comprehensive list. We encourage teams to utilize any journal article that supports their approach to the problem.
随着社会变得更加互联,它们面临的挑战集合变得越来越复杂。我们依赖跨学科的团队中具有多样专业知识和不同视角的人来处理许多最具挑战性的问题。在过去50多年中,我们对团队成功的概念理解已经显著提升,这使得科学、创造性或体力团队能够更好地解决这些复杂问题。研究人员已经报告了关于组建团队的最佳策略、队友之间的最佳互动和理想的领导风格。跨所有部门和领域的强大团队能够执行通过个人努力或队友加和贡献序列无法实现的复杂任务。
探索团队过程的最有信息量的设置之一是在竞技团队运动中。团队运动必须遵守严格的规则,这些规则可能包括但不限于球员人数、他们的角色、球员间允许的接触、他们的位置和移动、获得的分数以及违规的后果。团队成功不仅仅是个人球员能力的总和。相反,它基于许多其他因素,涉及队友如何协同工作。这些因素可能包括团队是否具有技能多样性(一个人可能速度快,而另一个精准),团队如何在个人表现与集体表现之间保持平衡(明星球员可能帮助提升所有队友的技能),以及团队随时间有效协调的能力(当一个球员从对手那里抢走球时,另一个球员准备进攻)。
鉴于你的建模技能,你的家乡足球队(在欧洲和其他地方被称为足球)Huskies的教练已经要求你的公司,Intrepid Champion Modeling (ICM),帮助理解球队的动态。特别是,教练要求你探索场上球员之间复杂互动如何影响他们的成功。目标不仅是检查直接导致得分的互动,而是要在整个比赛和整个赛季中探索团队动态,以帮助确定下个赛季可以改善团队合作的具体策略。教练要求ICM量化和形式化已经成功(和不成功)的团队结构和动态特征。Huskies提供了[1]上赛季的详细信息数据,包括他们与19个对手队伍(每个对手队伍比赛两次)进行的所有38场比赛。总的来说,数据涵盖了366名球员(30名Huskies球员和336名对方球员)之间的23,429次传球,以及59,271次比赛事件。
ICM的团队应使用提供的数据来解决以下问题:
你的提交应包括:
注意: 参考列表和任何附录不计入页面限制,应在你完成的解决方案之后出现。你不应使用未经授权的图片和材料,其使用受版权法限制。确保你引用了报告中使用的想法和材料的来源。
附件
2020_Problem_D_DATA.zip
fullevents.csv
matches.csv
passingevents.csv
README.txt
这个数据集是从一个更大的数据集中处理得来的,该数据集涵盖了来自五个欧洲国家足球比赛以及2018年世界杯的近2000场比赛。
术语表
引用参考文献
[1] Pappalardo, L., Cintia, P., Rossi, A. et al. A public data set of spatio-temporal match events in soccer competitions. Sci Data 6, 236 (2019).
可选资源
足球(足球)网络的研究已经产生了许多讨论相关主题的文章。下面列出了一些文章。你在解决方案中不需要使用这些示例文章中的任何一篇,也不是一个全面的列表。我们鼓励团队使用任何支持他们解决问题方法的期刊文章。
Since the 1950s, the manufacturing of plastics has grown exponentially because of its variety of uses, such as food packaging, consumer products, medical devices, and construction. While there are significant benefits, the negative implications associated with increased production of plastics are concerning. Plastic products do not readily break down, are difficult to dispose of, and only about 9% of plastics are recycled[1]. Effects can be seen by the approximately 4-12 million tons of plastic waste that enter the oceans each year[1,2]. Plastic waste has severe environmental consequences and it is predicted that if our current trends continue, the oceans will be filled with more plastic than fish by 2050[2]. The effect on marine life has been studied[3], but the effects on human health are not yet completely understood[4]. The rise of single-use and disposable plastic products results in entire industries dedicated to creating plastic waste. It also suggests that the amount of time the product is useful is significantly shorter than the time it takes to properly mitigate the plastic waste. Consequently, to solve the plastic waste problem, we need to slow down the flow of plastic production and improve how we manage plastic waste.
Your team has been hired by the International Council of Plastic Waste Management (ICM) to address this escalating environmental crisis. You must develop a plan to significantly reduce, if not eliminate, single-use and disposable plastic product waste.
Your submission should consist of:
Note: Reference List and any appendices do not count toward the page limit.
Glossary
Disposable Plastic Products: plastic materials or products that are not recyclable and become trash.
Mitigate: To make less severe, to moderate, to alleviate.
Plastic Waste: plastic objects that have not been recycled properly or cannot be recycled; debris made of plastic.
Single-Use Plastic Products: products made of plastic intended for one time use before being discarded.
Cited References
[1] Geyer, R., Jambeck, J. R., & Law, K. L. (2017). Production, use, and fate of all plastics ever made. Science Advances, 3(7), e1700782.
[2] Jambeck, J. R., Geyer, R., Wilcox, C., Siegler, T. R., Perryman, M., Andrady, A., … & Law, K. L. (2015). Plastic waste inputs from land into the ocean. Science, 347(6223), 768-771.
[3] Li, W. C., Tse, H. F., & Fok, L. (2016). Plastic waste in the marine environment: A review of sources, occurrence and effects. Science of the Total Environment, 566, 333-349.
[4] Galloway T.S. (2015) Micro- and Nano-plastics and Human Health. In: Bergmann M., Gutow L., Klages M. (eds) Marine Anthropogenic Litter.
自1950年代以来,由于其在食品包装、消费品、医疗设备和建筑等多种用途,塑料制造业的增长呈指数级。尽管塑料带来了显著的好处,但与塑料生产增加相关的负面影响令人关注。塑料产品不易分解,难以处理,且只有约9%的塑料被回收[1]。大约每年有4-1200万吨的塑料废物进入海洋,这一影响是显而易见的[1,2]。塑料废物对环境有严重的后果,据预测,如果目前的趋势持续下去,到2050年海洋中的塑料将比鱼还多[2]。海洋生物受影响的情况已有研究[3],但塑料对人类健康的影响尚未完全理解[4]。一次性和即弃型塑料产品的兴起导致了整个产业致力于创造塑料废物。这也表明产品的有用时间远远短于适当处理塑料废物所需的时间。因此,要解决塑料废物问题,我们需要减缓塑料生产的流量并改善我们管理塑料废物的方式。
你们的团队已被国际塑料废物管理委员会(ICM)聘请来解决这一日益严重的环境危机。你们必须制定一项计划,以显著减少,如果不是消除,一次性和即弃型塑料产品废物。
提交要求
注意:参考列表和任何附件不计入页数限制。
术语表
引用参考文献
[1] Geyer, R., Jambeck, J. R., & Law, K. L. (2017). 生产、使用和所有塑料的命运。Science Advances, 3(7), e1700782。
[2] Jambeck, J. R., Geyer, R., Wilcox, C., Siegler, T. R., Perryman, M., Andrady, A., … & Law, K. L. (2015)。塑料废物从陆地进入海洋。Science, 347(6223), 768-771。
[3] Li, W. C., Tse, H. F., & Fok, L. (2016)。海洋环境中的塑料废物:来源、发生和影响的综述。Science of the Total Environment, 566, 333-349。
[4] Galloway T.S. (2015) 微塑料和纳米塑料与人类健康。在:Bergmann M., Gutow L., Klages M. (编辑) 海洋人为垃圾。
Researchers have identified several island nations, such as The Maldives, Tuvalu, Kiribati, and The Marshall Islands, as being at risk of completely disappearing due to rising sea levels. What happens, or what should happen, to an island's population when its nation's land disappears? Not only do these environmentally displaced persons (EDPs) need to relocate, but there is also risk of losing a unique culture, language, and way of life. In this problem, we ask you to look more closely at this issue, in terms of both the need to relocate people and the protection of culture. There are many considerations and questions to address, to include: Where will these EDPs go? What countries will take them? Given various nations' disproportionate contributions to the green-house gasses both historically and currently that have accelerated climate change linked to the rising seas, should the worst offenders have a higher obligation to address these issues? And, who gets a say in deciding where these nationless EDPs make a new home — the individuals, an intergovernmental organization like the United Nations (UN), or the individual governments of the states absorbing these persons? A more detailed explanation of these issues is given in the Issue Paper.
As a result of a recent UN ruling that opened the door to the theoretical recognition of EDPs as refugees, the International Climate Migration Foundation (ICM-F) has hired you to advise the UN by developing a model and using it to analyze this multifaceted issue of when, why, and how the UN should step into a role of addressing the increasing challenge of EDPs. The ICM-F plans to brief the UN on guidance for how the UN should generate a systemized response for EDPs, especially in consideration of the desire to preserve cultural heritage. Your assignment is to develop a model (or set of models) and use your model(s) to provide the analysis to support this briefing. The ICM-F is especially interested in understanding the scope of the issue of EDPs. For example, how many people are currently at risk of becoming EDPs[1]; what is the value of the cultures of at-risk nations; how are those answers likely to change over time? Furthermore, how should the world respond with an international policy that specifically focuses on protecting the rights of persons whose nations have disappeared in the face of climate change while also aiming to preserve culture? Based on your analysis, what recommendations can you offer on this matter, and what are the implications of accepting or rejecting your recommendations?
This problem is extremely complex. We understand that your submission will not be able to fully consider all of the aspects described in the Issue Paper beginning on page 3. However, considering the aspects that you address, synthesize your work into a cohesive answer to the ICM-F as they advise the UN. At a minimum, your team's paper should include:
The ICM-F consists of interdisciplinary judges including mathematicians, climate scientists, and experts in refugee migration to review your work. Therefore, your paper should be written for a scientifically literate yet diverse audience.
Your submission should consist of:
NOTE: Reference List and any appendices do not count toward the page limit and should appear after your completed solution. You should not make use of unauthorized images and materials whose use is restricted by copyright laws. Ensure you cite the sources for your ideas and the materials used in your report.
Glossary
Environmentally displaced persons (EDPs): people who must relocate as their homeland becomes uninhabitable due to climate change events
Cultural heritage: the ways of living of a group or society passed through generations to include customs, practices, art, and values.
[1] There are multiple estimates for the current and predicted number of climate refugees in the existing literature, but they are vastly different. Therefore, you need to support your conclusions with analysis based on your own model(s), either building off of existing analysis or with a new and independent analysis.
研究人员已经确定了几个岛国,如马尔代夫、图瓦卢、基里巴斯和马绍尔群岛,因海平面上升而面临完全消失的风险。当一个国家的土地消失时,其岛屿上的人口将会发生什么,或者应该发生什么?这些环境流离失所者(EDPs)不仅需要搬迁,而且还有失去独特文化、语言和生活方式的风险。在这个问题中,我们要求您更仔细地审视这个问题,既包括搬迁人口的需求,也包括文化保护。需要解决的考虑因素和问题很多,包括:这些EDPs将去哪里?哪些国家会接收他们?鉴于各个国家在历史上和当前对加速气候变化与海平面上升有关的温室气体的贡献不成比例,最糟糕的肇事者是否应该承担更高的义务来解决这些问题?在这些无国籍EDPs决定在哪里安家时,谁应该有发言权——个人、像联合国(UN)这样的政府间组织,还是吸收这些人的个别国家政府?这些问题的更详细解释在议题论文中给出。
由于联合国最近做出了开放性判决,为理论上承认EDPs为难民铺平了道路,国际气候移民基金会(ICM-F)雇佣了您来通过开发模型并使用它来分析联合国何时、为什么以及如何介入处理日益增加的EDPs挑战的多方面问题,来为联合国提供建议。ICM-F计划向联合国简报关于如何为联合国生成针对EDPs的系统化响应的指导,特别是考虑到保护文化遗产的愿望。您的任务是开发一个模型(或一组模型)并使用您的模型来提供支持此简报的分析。ICM-F特别感兴趣的是了解EDPs问题的范围。例如,目前有多少人面临成为EDPs的风险[1];处于危险之中的国家文化的价值是什么;这些答案随着时间的推移可能会如何变化?此外,世界应该如何用一项国际政策来应对,专注于保护那些国家在气候变化面前消失的人们的权利,同时也旨在保护文化?基于您的分析,您能就这个问题提供哪些建议,接受或拒绝您的建议有什么影响?
这个问题极其复杂。我们理解您的提交不可能完全考虑到议题论文第3页开始描述的所有方面。但是,考虑到您所涉及的方面,将您的工作综合成一个向ICM-F提供的有凝聚力的答案,因为他们向联合国提供建议。至少,您团队的论文应包括:
ICM-F由包括数学家、气候科学家和难民迁移专家在内的跨学科评委组成,他们将审查您的工作。因此,您的论文应该写给科学素养但背景多样的读者。
您的提交应包括:
注意:参考文献列表和任何附录不计入页面限制,并应该出现在您的解决方案完成后。您不应使用未经授权的图像和材料,其使用受版权法的限制。确保您引用了报告中使用的想法和材料的来源。
术语表
环境流离失所者 (EDPs): 由于气候变化事件导致家园不适宜居住而必须搬迁的人员
文化遗产: 通过世代传递的一群人或社会的生活方式,包括习俗、实践、艺术和价值观。
[1] 现有文献中对当前和预测的气候难民人数有多个估计,但它们相差很大。因此,您需要支持您的结论,基于您自己的模型进行分析,无论是基于现有分析的扩展,还是基于新的和独立的分析。