The carbon cycle describes the process of the exchange of carbon throughout the geochemical cycle of the Earth, and is a vital component for life on the planet. Part of the carbon cycle includes the decomposition of compounds, allowing carbon to be renewed and used in other forms. One key component of this part of the process is the decomposition of plant material and woody fibers.
Some of the key agents in decomposing woody fibers are fungi. The authors of a recent research article on wood decomposition by fungi identified fungi traits that determine decomposition rates and also noted links between certain traits[1]. In particular, the slow growing strains of fungi tend to be better able to survive and grow in the presence of environmental changes with respect to moisture and temperature, while the faster growing strains tend to be less robust to the same changes. A synopsis of this article can be found below on page 3.
These researchers examined a large number of traits associated with different fungi and their role in the decomposition of ground litter (dead plant material) and woody fibers. For this MCM Problem you should focus on just two traits of a fungus: the growth rate of the fungus and the fungus’ tolerance to moisture. Your primary goal is to model the decomposition of woody fibers in a given patch of land, and do so in the presence of multiple types of fungi breaking down woody fibers in the same area.
As you explore the relationship of the two traits of interest, growth rate and moisture tolerance, with the rate of decomposition, several questions may arise to include: Using these two traits, how do the different fungi interact and decompose ground litter in a fixed patch of land in different environments? Within these different environments, how will the decomposition be impacted over time as conditions vary? How do environmental changes and the variation in environmental change impact the long-term dynamics with respect to decomposition, as well as competition between fungi in a given environment? The estimation for the decomposition rates, given the growth rate, is shown in Figure 1. The estimation of the decomposition rates, given the relative moisture tolerance, is shown in Figure 2.
Requirement: Your paper should explore and address the following aspects.
Include a two-page article of your results. Your article should be appropriate for inclusion in an introductory college level biology textbook to discuss recent developments in our understanding of the roles fungi play in ecological systems.
Your PDF solution of no more than 25 total pages should include:
Note: The MCM Contest now has a 25 page limit. All aspects of your submission count toward the 25 page limit (Summary Sheet, Table of Contents, Reference List and any Appendices).
Reference:
[1] Nicky Lustenhouwer, Daniel S. Maynard, Mark A. Bradford, Daniel L. Lindner, Brad Oberle, Amy E. Zanne, and Thomas W. Crowther, "A trait-based understanding of wood decomposition by fungi," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States, May 13, 2020. https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/117/21/11551.full.pdf
Research Article Synopsis
We provide a brief synopsis below of the research article by Lustenhouwer, et al [1] . The original full article is available at https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/117/21/11551.full.pdf. Note that you do not need to read the original article to complete this MCM Problem. The decomposition of organic material is a critical component of the carbon cycle. Large scale modeling of the carbon cycle as well as global climate models are becoming more refined and are incorporating more small scale details. One important detail is the rate associated with the decay of organic material by microbial and fungal communities. The focus of the paper is the different decay rates associated with different types of fungi.
The authors of the paper explored several different traits of fungi to determine the effects of the decomposition of wood. They did so by measuring how much mass was lost in wood blocks after introducing different types of fungi into the blocks. The researchers examined a large number of different traits associated with each fungus and attempted to determine the role these traits play in the decomposition of the wood blocks.
For example, one important trait is the hyphal extension rate. The hyphae are the cells that branch out and form the filaments and structure of a fungus, and the different kind of hyphae play different roles in the life cycle of a fungus. The hyphal extension rate is essentially the growth rate of a fungus. Another trait examined was the density of the hyphae in a given volume.
These two traits are associated with a number of properties of a fungus. For example, it was found that if the hyphal extension rate was larger (faster growth), the fungus was more likely to decompose wood faster. Likewise, if the filaments were denser it was more likely that the decomposition of wood was slower. Additionally, these two traits are also associated with how a fungus reacts to different environmental conditions.
In particular the researchers found that fungi that were better able to adapt to a more varied range of moisture conditions tended to also decompose wood slower. Fungi that grew faster and out-competed other fungi tended to decompose wood faster. Figures 1 and 2 in the MCM Problem A statement show these relationships.
Woody materials break down through multiple stages, and the fungi that were examined in the research article are most relevant with respect to the decay of woody materials in the middle of their decay cycle. The results may differ for other stages of decay. For the purpose of this modeling exercise, you can focus on the results for the middle stage and assume it is consistent for other stages of decomposition. Another consideration is that local environmental conditions can vary greatly over an area and impact the overall dynamics as well.
Glossary:
Biodiversity: Broadly, the variety of life in the world. On a smaller scale, the variety of life in a particular habitat or ecosystem.
Carbon Cycle: The continuous process (or series of processes) by which carbon is exchanged between organisms and the environment, and then reused throughout the planet.
Competitive Ranking: A measure of the ability for a fungus to out-compete other fungi in a series of pair wise tests in similar conditions.
Earth’s Biosphere: The lithosphere (crust and upper mantle of the earth), the hydrosphere (all of the water on the earth’s surface), and the atmosphere (the envelope of gases surrounding the earth) of the earth.
Fungus (plural: fungi): Any member of the group of eukaryotic (cells that have a nucleus enclosed within a nuclear envelope) organisms. Examples are yeasts, molds, and mushrooms.
Geochemical Cycle: The various pathways and steps by which elements are exchanged through and between the Earth’s biosphere.
Hyphae: The cells that form the filaments within a fungal community.
Hyphal Extension Rate: The rate of growth of a fungus.
Moisture Niche Width: The difference between the maximum and minimum moisture levels in which half of a fungal community can maintain its fastest growth rate.
Moisture Tolerance: The difference between a fungus’ competitive ranking and its moisture niche width.
碳循环描述了碳在地球地球化学循环中的交换过程,它是地球上生命的重要组成部分。碳循环的一部分包括化合物的分解,使得碳得以更新并以其他形式被利用。这一过程的关键组成部分之一是植物材料和木质纤维的分解。
分解木质纤维的关键因素之一是真菌。最近一篇关于真菌木材分解的研究文章的作者们鉴定出决定分解速率的真菌特性,并且注意到某些特性之间的联系[1]。特别是,生长缓慢的真菌株系在环境变化、尤其是湿度和温度变化方面更能够存活和生长,而生长较快的株系在相同变化下则不那么强健。这篇文章的概要可以在下面第3页找到。
这些研究者检查了与不同真菌及其在地表凋落物(死亡植物材料)和木质纤维分解中的作用相关的大量特性。在这个MCM问题中,你应该只关注真菌的两个特性:真菌的生长速率和真菌对湿度的耐受性。你的主要目标是模拟一个特定土地区域内木质纤维的分解,并在同一区域内考虑多种分解木质纤维的真菌类型。
当你探索这两个感兴趣的特性,生长速率和湿度耐受性,与分解速率的关系时,可能会引发几个问题:使用这两个特性,不同的真菌如何在不同环境中的固定土地块上相互作用并分解地表凋落物?在这些不同的环境中,随着条件的变化,分解将如何随时间受到影响?环境变化及其变化对分解长期动态以及特定环境中真菌间的竞争影响如何?图1显示了给定生长速率的分解速率估计。图2显示了给定相对湿度耐受性的分解速率估计。
需求:你的论文应探讨和解决以下方面。
你的PDF解决方案总共不超过25页,应包括:
注意:MCM竞赛现在有25页的限制。你提交的所有内容都计入25页限制(摘要表、目录、参考文献列表和任何附录)。
参考文献:
[1] Nicky Lustenhouwer, Daniel S. Maynard, Mark A. Bradford, Daniel L. Lindner, Brad Oberle, Amy E. Zanne, 和 Thomas W. Crowther, "基于特性的真菌木材分解理解," 美国国家科学院院报,2020年5月13日。https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/117/21/11551.full.pdf
研究文章概要
我们在下面提供了Lustenhouwer等人 [1] 研究文章的简要概要。原始的完整文章可在 https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/117/21/11551.full.pdf 获取。注意,完成这个MCM问题不需要阅读原始文章。有机材料的分解是碳循环的关键组成部分。大规模模拟碳循环以及全球气候模型正在变得更加精确,并且正在纳入更多小规模的细节。一个重要的细节是微生物和真菌群落分解有机材料的相关速率。该论文的重点是不同类型真菌相关的不同分解速率。
论文的作者们探讨了真菌的几个不同特性,以确定这些特性对木材分解的影响。他们通过测量在引入不同类型真菌后木块中失去的质量来进行。研究者检查了与每种真菌相关的大量不同特性,并试图确定这些特性在木块分解中的作用。
例如,一个重要的特性是菌丝体的伸长速率。菌丝体是分支并形成真菌丝状结构的细胞,不同类型的菌丝体在真菌的生命周期中扮演不同的角色。菌丝体伸长速率本质上是真菌的生长速率。另一个检查的特性是给定体积中菌丝体的密度。
这两个特性与真菌的许多属性相关。例如,如果菌丝体伸长速率更大(生长更快),那么真菌更有可能更快地分解木材。同样地,如果丝状体更密集,则分解木材的可能性就更慢。此外,这两个特性也与真菌对不同环境条件的反应相关。
特别是,研究者发现,能够更好地适应更广泛湿度条件范围的真菌也倾向于更慢地分解木材。生长更快并且击败其他真菌的真菌倾向于更快地分解木材。MCM问题A声明中的图1和图2显示了这些关系。
木材通过多个阶段分解,研究文章中检查的真菌与木材在其分解周期中间阶段的腐烂最相关。对于其他分解阶段,结果可能有所不同。为了这个建模练习,你可以关注中间阶段的结果,并假设它对其他分解阶段是一致的。另一个考虑因素是,局部环境条件可以在一个区域内变化很大,并影响总体动态。
术语表:
Background
The 2019-2020 fire season in Australia saw devastating wildfires in every state, with the worst impact in New South Wales and eastern Victoria. The wildfires occurred during a severe drought and persistent heat wave exacerbated by climate-change. Figure 1 shows the wildfire hot spots in this area from October 1, 2019 to January 7, 2020, with yellow showing fires from October 1st to January 6th , and red showing active fires on January 7, 2020.
Firefighters have used drones for surveillance and situational awareness (SSA) for several years; SSA drones carry high definition & thermal imaging cameras and telemetry sensors that monitor and report data from wearable devices on front-line personnel. Wearable devices can be used as Personal Locator Beacons or more complex environmental monitors. SSA drones help monitor the evolving situation, letting the Emergency Operations Center (EOC) best direct active crews for optimal effect and maximal safety.
Two-way radio communication allows “boots-on-the-ground” forward teams to give status reports to the EOC and allows the EOC to give orders directly to forward teams. Deployed personnel carry handheld two-way radios operating in the VHF/UHF bands. The range of handheld radios is limited by their low transmitting power, typically a maximum of 5 watts, and is determined mainly by distance and physical topography in rural areas or “building topography” in urban areas; weather has little effect on VHF/UHF signals. A 5-watt radio has a nominal range of 5 km over flat, unobstructed ground, but drops to 2 km in an urban area. Repeaters, transceivers that automatically rebroadcast signals at higher powers, can extend radio range. A repeater located between the front lines and the EOC can relay radio signals both from the front lines to the EOC and from the EOC to the front lines. The range of a repeater is also determined by distance and topography, but is significantly greater than lower power handheld radios. Recently, hovering drones carrying repeaters have been used to dramatically extend the range of low power radios on the front lines. A 10-watt repeater, weighing 1.3 kg carried by a drone hovering well above ground level, can achieve a range of 20 km. Akme Corporation's prototype WileE–15.2X hybrid drone is projected to cost approximately $10,000 (AUD) when equipped with either a radio repeater or video & telemetry capability. Tests have shown this drone has the capabilities listed in Table 1.
Requirements: Your team of consultants has been retained to:
Your PDF solution of no more than 25 total pages should include:
Note: The MCM Contest now has a 25 page limit. All aspects of your submission count toward the 25 page limit (Summary Sheet, Table of Contents, Reference List and any Appendices).
Glossary
“Boots-on-the-ground” Forward Teams: The idiom “Boots on the ground” indicates personnel that are physically at the location of action. In firefighting, these are teams that are at the front lines of the efforts to control a fire event; they have immediate, critical knowledge of the rapidly changing situation.
Budget Request: A budget request is a business letter seeking funds for costs, expenses, and/or operating overhead for a project or department within an organization. An annotated budget request provides a justification or rationale for each requested item.
Country Fire Authority (CFA): A volunteer fire service responsible for fire suppression, rescues, and response to other accidents and hazards across most of the state Victoria, Australia
Emergency Operations Center (EOC): The central command and control point for emergency related operations and activities, and for requests for activation and deployment of resources (personnel or equipment). A mobile EOC can be deployed near the site of an emergency.
Repeater: An unattended radio transceiver that automatically rebroadcasts a received signal at high power on a nearby frequency (±600kHz (0.6 MHz) for VHF & ±5MHz for UHF) or on an adjacent channel.
Situational Awareness: The perception of the current elements of an event, understanding their significance, and extrapolating their status to the near future; In other words, the knowledge and understanding what is going on around you.
Surveillance: The systematic collection and analysis of data, and the sharing of those data to others who can act upon that information.
Transceiver: A radio that can both transmit and receive.
UHF: Ultra High Frequency, radio frequencies from 300 megahertz to 3,000 megahertz.
VHF: Very High Frequency, radio frequencies from 30 megahertz to 300 megahertz
背景
2019-2020年的澳大利亚火灾季节见证了每个州都发生了毁灭性的野火,其中新南威尔士州和维多利亚东部的影响最为严重。野火发生在一场严重的干旱和持续的热浪中,而这些都是由气候变化加剧的。图1显示了2019年10月1日至2020年1月7日期间该地区的野火热点,黄色显示了10月1日至1月6日的火灾,红色显示了2020年1月7日的活跃火灾。
消防人员已经使用无人机进行侦察和情境感知(SSA)多年;SSA无人机携带高清晰度和热成像摄像头以及遥测传感器,这些设备监控并报告前线人员可穿戴设备上的数据。可穿戴设备可以作为个人定位信标或更复杂的环境监视器使用。SSA无人机有助于监测不断演变的情况,让紧急操作中心(EOC)能够最佳地指挥活跃的队伍以达到最优效果和最大安全性。
双向无线电通信允许“实战部队”前方团队向EOC报告状态,并允许EOC直接向前方团队下达命令。部署人员携带的手持双向无线电在VHF/UHF频段操作。手持无线电的范围受到其低发射功率的限制,通常最大为5瓦,并主要受到距离和农村地区的物理地形或城市地区的“建筑地形”所决定;天气对VHF/UHF信号的影响很小。5瓦无线电在平坦无遮挡的地面上的名义范围为5公里,但在城市地区降至2公里。中继器是自动以更高功率重播信号的收发信机,可以扩大无线电的范围。位于前线和EOC之间的中继器可以从前线到EOC和从EOC到前线转发无线电信号。中继器的范围也受到距离和地形的决定,但远大于低功率手持无线电。最近,悬停的无人机携带中继器被用来显著扩展前线低功率无线电的范围。一个10瓦中继器,由一个高于地面悬停的无人机携带,重量为1.3公斤,可以达到20公里的范围。Akme公司的原型机WileE–15.2X混合动力无人机,配备无线电中继器或视频和遥测功能,预计成本约为10,000澳元(AUD)。测试表明这款无人机具有表1中列出的功能。
要求:您的咨询团队已被聘请:
为维多利亚州乡村消防局(CFA)提议成立的新部门“快速林火反应”创建一个模型,以确定购买SSA无人机和无线电中继无人机的最佳数量和组合。你的模型应该在能力和安全性与经济性之间取得平衡,同时考虑观测和通信任务需求以及地形。你的模型还应该将火灾事件的大小和频率作为参数。
演示你的模型如何适应未来十年极端火灾事件发生可能性的变化。假设无人机系统的成本保持不变,预测设备成本增加会发生什么。
确定一个模型,用于优化不同地形上不同大小火灾的悬停VHF/UHF无线电中继无人机的位置,如图2所示:维多利亚东部地形图。请注意,海拔高度从海岸的海平面到维多利亚的Mt. Bogong的1,986米不等。
准备一份一至两页的带注释的预算请求,由您的模型支持,供CFA提交给维多利亚州政府。
您的PDF解决方案共不超过25页,应包括:
术语表
“实战部队”前方团队:成语“实战部队”指的是在行动地点的人员。在消防工作中,这些是在控制火灾事件前线的团队;他们对快速变化的情况有直接的、关键的了解。
预算请求:预算请求是一封商业信函,寻求为项目或组织内部的部门提供资金、费用和/或运营开销。带注释的预算请求为每个请求的项目提供了理由或基本原理。
乡村消防局(CFA):负责澳大利亚维多利亚州大部分地区的消防、救援以及对其他事故和危害的响应的志愿消防服务。
紧急操作中心(EOC):紧急相关操作和活动的中央指挥控制点,以及激活和部署资源(人员或设备)的请求。一个移动的EOC可以部署在紧急情况现场附近。
中继器:一个不需要人工操作的无线电收发信机,自动以高功率在附近频率(对于VHF为±600kHz (0.6 MHz)、对于UHF为±5MHz)或相邻频道重播接收到的信号。
情境感知:对事件当前元素的感知,理解其意义,并推测其在不远的将来的状态;换句话说,就是了解和理解你周围发生了什么。
侦察:数据的系统收集和分析,以及将这些数据分享给可以基于该信息采取行动的他人。
收发信机:既可以发送信号也可以接收信号的无线电设备。
UHF:超高频,从300兆赫至3,000兆赫的无线电频率。
VHF:甚高频,从30兆赫至300兆赫的无线电频率。
In September 2019, a colony of Vespa mandarinia (also known as the Asian giant hornet) was discovered on Vancouver Island in British Columbia, Canada. The nest was quickly destroyed, but the news of the event spread rapidly throughout the area. Since that time, several confirmed sightings of the pest have occurred in neighboring Washington State, as well as a multitude of mistaken sightings. See Figure 1 below for a map of detections, hornet watches, and public sightings.
Vespa mandarinia is the largest species of hornet in the world, and the occurrence of the nest was alarming. Additionally, the giant hornet is a predator of European honeybees, invading and destroying their nests. A small number of the hornets are capable of destroying a whole colony of European honeybees in a short time. At the same time, they are voracious predators of other insects that are considered agricultural pests.
The life cycle of this hornet is similar to many other wasps. Fertilized queens emerge in the spring and begin a new colony. In the fall, new queens leave the nest and will spend the winter in the soil waiting for the spring. A new queen has a range estimated at 30km for establishing her nest. More detailed information on Asian hornets is included in the problem attachments and can also be found online.
Due to the potential severe impact on local honeybee populations, the presence of Vespa mandarinia can cause a good deal of anxiety. The State of Washington has created helplines and a website for people to report sightings of these hornets. Based on these reports from the public, the state must decide how to prioritize its limited resources to follow-up with additional investigation. While some reports have been determined to be Vespa mandarinia, many other sightings have turned out to be other types of insects.
The primary questions for this problem are “How can we interpret the data provided by the public reports?” and “What strategies can we use to prioritize these public reports for additional investigation given the limited resources of government agencies?”
Your paper should explore and address the following aspects:
Using your model, what would constitute evidence that the pest has been eradicated in Washington State? Finally, your report should include a two-page memorandum that summarizes your results for the Washington State Department of Agriculture.
Your PDF solution of no more than 25 total pages should include:
Note: The MCM Contest now has a 25 page limit. All aspects of your submission count toward the 25 page limit (Summary Sheet, Table of Contents, Reference List and any Appendices).
You should not make use of unauthorized images and materials whose use is restricted by copyright laws. Ensure you cite the sources for your ideas and the materials used in your report.
General Guidelines for Problem C
In addition to the specific requirements listed above please keep in mind that this is a statistical modeling exercise. Submissions are expected to adhere to best practices associated with the use of data. Some examples of these expectations include but are not limited to the following:
Attachments
We provide the four following materials for this problem. THE DATA FILES PROVIDED CONTAIN THE ONLY DATA YOU SHOULD USE FOR THIS PROBLEM.
http://www.comapmath.com/MCMICM/2021MCM_ProblemC_Files.rar
A password is required to open the file: Af6SP7rdm33PxPJmDb4wZq7cw
Reference
https://agr.wa.gov/departments/insects-pests-and-weeds/insects/hornets/data
Accessed 11/5/2020.2019年9月,加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省的温哥华岛上发现了一窝黄蜂(亚洲大黄蜂,Vespa mandarinia)。这个巢很快被销毁,但是有关这一事件的消息迅速在该地区传播开来。自那时以来,邻近的华盛顿州发生了几次这种害虫的确认目击,以及大量误报目击。请参见下方的图1,了解检测位置、黄蜂监控和公众目击地图。
亚洲大黄蜂是世界上最大的黄蜂种类,巢的出现引起了警觉。此外,大黄蜂是欧洲蜜蜂的捕食者,会侵入并摧毁蜜蜂巢。少量的大黄蜂能在短时间内摧毁整个欧洲蜜蜂群。同时,它们是其他被视为农业害虫昆虫的贪婪捕食者。
这种黄蜂的生命周期与许多其他的黄蜂类似。春季,受精后的蜂后出现并开始新的群体。秋天,新的蜂后离开巢穴,在土壤中过冬,等待来年春天。新蜂后建立巢穴的范围估计为30公里。有关亚洲大黄蜂的更多详细信息包含在问题附件中,也可以在线查找。
由于对当地蜜蜂种群可能产生的严重影响,Vespa mandarinia的出现可能会引起相当大的焦虑。华盛顿州已经建立了求助热线和网站,供人们报告这些黄蜂的目击情况。根据公众的报告,州政府必须决定如何优先分配有限的资源以进行进一步调查。虽然一些报告被确定为亚洲大黄蜂,但许多其他目击报告最终被证明是其他类型的昆虫。
这个问题的主要问题是“我们如何解读公众报告提供的数据?”以及“考虑到政府机构资源有限,我们如何使用策略来优先处理这些公众报告进行进一步调查?”
你的论文应探讨并解决以下方面:
你的PDF解决方案不得超过总共25页,应该包括:
注意:MCM竞赛现在有25页的限制。你的提交的所有内容都计入25页限制(摘要页、目录、参考文献列表和任何附录)。
你不应该使用未经授权的图片和材料,其使用受版权法的限制。确保你在报告中引用了你的想法和使用的材料的来源。
问题C的一般指导方针
除了上面列出的具体要求之外,请记住这是一个统计建模练习。提交的作品应该遵循与数据使用相关的最佳实践。这些期望的一些例子包括但不限于以下内容:
附件
2021_MCM_Problem_C_Data.zip
4.21 MB
我们为这个问题提供以下四种材料。提供的数据文件包含你应该用于这个问题的唯一数据。
2021MCM_ProblemC_Vespamandarinia.pdf 宾夕法尼亚州立大学扩展提供的描述昆虫的背景信息。
2021MCM_ProblemC_DataSet.xlsx 一个包含4440个目击报告的电子表格,包含以下字段:
GlobalID:每个目击记录的唯一标签。
Detection Date:报告的目击日期。
Notes:提交报告的人提供的评论。这可以是公众成员,或偶尔是州政府雇员。
Lab Status:州农业部门在分析后对目击进行的官方分类。Positive ID意味着被确认为亚洲大黄蜂。Negative ID意味着被排除。Unprocessed意味着尚未分类。Unverified意味着由于缺乏信息未作出确定。
Lab Comments:州昆虫学实验室在分析后对记录所作的补充。
Submission Date:报告提交给州政府的日期。这个日期可能在检测日期之后很久。
Latitude (of sighting):这些数据由州政府提供,是转换报告中提供的地址后的纬度数据。
Longitude (of sighting):这些数据由州政府提供,是转换报告中提供的地址后的经度数据。
2021MCM_ProblemC_Files.rar 一个rar文件,包含与目击报告一起提交的3305张图片。这个662MB的文件可以从:http://www.comapmath.com/MCMICM/2021MCM_ProblemC_Files.rar 下载。打开文件需要密码:Af6SP7rdm33PxPJmDb4wZq7cw
2021MCM ProblemC_ Images_by_GlobalID.xlsx 一个将图片与目击事件关联的电子表格,包含以下字段:
FileName:rar文件夹中图片的名称。
GlobalID:每个目击记录的唯一标签。这在两个电子表格中是一致的。
FileType:图像以.jpg、.pdf、.png、.jfif、八进制流、xml开放格式或.zip文件形式到达。视频以.mp4或quicktime文件形式到达。
参考文献
华盛顿州农业部门。2020亚洲大黄蜂公共仪表板。https://agr.wa.gov/departments/insects-pests-and-weeds/insects/hornets/data 访问日期:2020年11月5日。
Music has been part of human societies since the beginning of time as an essential component of cultural heritage. As part of an effort to understand the role music has played in the collective human experience, we have been asked to develop a method to quantify musical evolution. There are many factors that can influence artists when they create a new piece of music, including their innate ingenuity, current social or political events, access to new instruments or tools, or other personal experiences. Our goal is to understand and measure the influence of previously produced music on new music and musical artists.
Some artists can list a dozen or more other artists who they say influenced their own musical work. It has also been suggested that influence can be measured by the degree of similarity between song characteristics, such as structure, rhythm, or lyrics. There are sometimes revolutionary shifts in music, offering new sounds or tempos, such as when a new genre emerges, or there is a reinvention of an existing genre (e.g. classical, pop/rock, jazz, etc.). This can be due to a sequence of small changes, a cooperative effort of artists, a series of influential artists, or a shift within society.
Many songs have similar sounds, and many artists have contributed to major shifts in a musical genre. Sometimes these shifts are due to one artist influencing another. Sometimes it is a change that emerges in response to external events (such as major world events or technological advances). By considering networks of songs and their musical characteristics, we can begin to capture the influence that musical artists have on each other. And, perhaps, we can also gain a better understanding of how music evolves through societies over time.
Your team has been identified by the Integrative Collective Music (ICM) Society to develop a model that measures musical influence. This problem asks you to examine evolutionary and revolutionary trends of artists and genres. To do this, your team has been given several data sets by the ICM:
Note: These data were scraped from AllMusic.com and obtained from Spotify’s API. DATA provided in these files are a subset of larger data sets. These files CONTAIN THE ONLY DATA YOU SHOULD USE FOR THIS PROBLEM.
To carry out this challenging project, the ICM Society asks your teams to explore the evolution of music through the influence across musical artists over time, by doing the following:
Write a one-page document to the ICM Society about the value of using your approach to understanding the influence of music through networks. Considering the two problem data sets were limited to only some genres, and subsequently to those artists common to both data sets, how would your work or solutions change with more or richer data? Recommend further study of music and its effect on culture.
The ICM Society, an interdisciplinary and diverse group from the fields of music, history, social science, technology, and mathematics, looks forward to your final report.
Your PDF solution of no more than 25 total pages should include:
Note: New for 2021! The ICM Contest now has a 25-page limit. All aspects of your submission count toward the 25-page limit: Summary Sheet, Table of Contents, Main Body of Solution, Images and Tables, One-page Document, Reference List, and any Appendices.
Attachments
We provide the following four data files for this problem. THE DATA FILES PROVIDED CONTAIN THE ONLY DATA YOU SHOULD USE FOR THIS PROBLEM.
Data Descriptions
(Data is encoded in utf-8 to allow for handling of special characters):
Spotify audio features from the full_music_data, data_by_artist, data_by_year:
Characteristics of the Music:
Type of Vocals:
Description:
音乐作为文化遗产的重要组成部分,自古以来就是人类社会的一部分。为了了解音乐在人类集体经历中所扮演的角色,我们被要求开发一种量化音乐演变的方法。影响艺术家创作新作品的因素有很多,包括他们与生俱来的聪明才智、当前的社会或政治事件、获得新乐器或工具的机会或其他个人经历。我们的目标是了解和衡量以前创作的音乐对新音乐和音乐艺术家的影响。
有些艺术家可以列举出十几位影响过自己音乐作品的其他艺术家。也有人认为,影响可以通过歌曲特征(如结构、节奏或歌词)之间的相似程度来衡量。音乐有时会发生革命性的转变,提供新的声音或节奏,如新流派的出现,或现有流派(如古典、流行/摇滚、爵士等)的再创造。这可能是由于一系列微小的变化、艺术家的合作努力、一系列有影响力的艺术家或社会内部的转变。
许多歌曲都有相似的音色,许多艺术家都对音乐流派的重大转变做出过贡献。有时,这些变化是由于一位艺术家影响了另一位艺术家。有时,它是因外部事件(如重大世界事件或技术进步)而出现的变化。通过考虑歌曲网络及其音乐特征,我们可以开始捕捉音乐艺术家之间的相互影响。或许,我们还能更好地了解音乐是如何随着时间的推移在社会中演变的。
综合集体音乐(ICM)学会已确定由你们的团队来开发一个衡量音乐影响力的模型。这个问题要求你们研究艺术家和流派的演变和革命趋势。为此,ICM 给你们的团队提供了几个数据集:
注:这些数据来自 AllMusic.com,并从 Spotify 的 API 获取。这些文件中提供的数据是更大数据集的子集。这些文件中包含了您在此问题中应使用的唯一数据。
为了完成这个具有挑战性的项目,ICM 协会要求你们的团队通过对音乐艺术家的影响来探索音乐的演变,具体做法如下:
ICM 协会是一个来自音乐、历史、社会科学、技术和数学领域的跨学科和多元化团体,我们期待着您的最终报告。
您的 PDF 解决方案总页数不超过 25 页,应包括
注:2021 年新规定!ICM 竞赛现在有 25 页的限制。您提交的所有内容都将计入 25 页限制内:摘要表、目录、解决方案主体、图片和表格、一页文档、参考资料列表和任何附录。
附件
2021_ICM_Problem_D_Data.zip 我们为该问题提供了以下四个数据文件。所提供的数据文件包含本问题应使用的唯一数据。
influence_data.csv
full_music_data.csv
data_by_artist.csv
data_by_year.csv
数据说明
influence_data.csv
(数据以 utf-8 编码,以便处理特殊字符):
influencer_id: 被列为影响者的唯一标识号。(数字字符串)
influencer_name:追随者或行业专家提供的具有影响力的艺术家的姓名。(字符串)
influencer_main_genre(影响者主要流派): 最能描述影响艺人创作的大部分音乐的流派。(如果有)(字符串)
influencer_active_start(影响者开始活跃的年代): 影响艺术家开始音乐生涯的年代。整数
follower_id: 被列为追随者的艺术家的唯一标识号。(数字字符串)
follower_name:追随影响艺术家的艺术家的名字。(字符串)
follower_main_genre(主要流派): 最能描述追随艺术家所创作的大部分音乐的流派。(如果有)(字符串)
follower_active_start(追随者开始活跃的年代): 下列艺术家开始音乐生涯的年代。整数
full_music_data.csv
data_by_artist.csv
data_by_year.csv
来自 full_music_data、data_by_artist 和 data_by_year 的 Spotify 音频特征:
artist_name:演唱曲目的艺术家。数组
artist_id: 与 influence_data.csv 文件中给出的唯一标识号相同。(数字字符串)
音乐的特征:
舞蹈性: 根据音乐元素(包括节奏、节奏稳定性、节拍强弱和整体规律性)的组合来衡量一首音乐是否适合跳舞。0.0 表示最不适合跳舞,1.0 表示最适合跳舞。浮动
能量: 代表强度和活动感的量度。通常情况下,精力充沛的音乐会给人快速、响亮和嘈杂的感觉。例如,死亡金属乐具有高能量,而巴赫前奏曲的能量则较低。浮动
价: 描述音轨所传达的音乐积极性的一种量度。价位高的曲目听起来更积极(如快乐、欢快、兴奋),而价位低的曲目听起来更消极(如悲伤、沮丧、愤怒)。浮动
tempo(节奏):音轨的整体估计节奏,单位为每分钟节拍 (BPM)。 (float)
响度 音轨的总体响度,单位为分贝 (dB)。响度是声音的质量,是物理强度(振幅)的主要心理相关因素。(浮动)
模式(mode): 表示调式(大调或小调),即旋律内容来源的音阶类型。大调用 1 表示,小调用 0 表示。
调性: 估计音轨的整体调性。整数使用标准音高类别符号映射到音高。如果没有检测到音调,则音调值为 -1 (整数)。
人声类型:
声学性: 音轨是否为原声的置信度。值为 1.0 表示音轨为原声的置信度很高。(浮点数)
器乐性: 预测音轨是否不包含人声。器乐性值越接近 1.0,表示音轨不含人声的可能性越大。(浮点)
生动性: 检测音轨中是否有听众。如果数值高于 0.8,则该音轨极有可能是现场直播的。(浮点)
speechiness(言语性): 检测音轨中是否存在口语。数值高于 0.66 表示音轨可能完全由口语组成。低于 0.33 的值很可能代表音乐和其他非语音类音轨。(浮点数)
explicit: 检测音轨中是否有明确的歌词。布尔
描述:
duration_ms: 音轨的持续时间(毫秒)。整数
流行度: 轨道的受欢迎程度。该值介于 0 和 100 之间,100 表示最受欢迎。(整数)
year:年份: 曲目发布的年份。(从 1921 年到 2020 年的整数)
release_date:曲目发布的日历日期,格式多为 yyyy-mm-dd。(字符串)
song_title (有删减): 歌曲名称。已运行软件删除歌名中任何可能的露骨词语。(字符串)
计数: 某一艺术家在 full_music_data.csv 文件中的歌曲数量。(整数)
Recent events have shown us that our global food system is unstable even in the parts of the world that it generally serves well. These instabilities are partly a result of our current global system of massive national and international food producers and distributers. This food system allows for food to be produced and distributed relatively cheaply and efficiently, thus suggesting this current model prioritizes efficiency and profitability.
Despite the efficiencies of this system, the United Nations estimates 821 million people worldwide suffer from hunger[1], even though there is sufficient food produced to feed every person in the world.[2] Food insecure people, those without access to sufficient affordable and nutritious food, live on every continent, in every country, and in every community. And, areas of food scarcity, where sufficient quantities of food and nutrients are not available, occur even in wealthy countries. Moreover, the current food system leaves a massive environmental footprint accounting for “29% of greenhouse gas emissions, … up to 80% of biodiversity loss, 80% of deforestation, and 70% of all freshwater use.”[^3] As our global population continues to rise while we experience the increased impact of decades of environmental abuse, the ability to produce more food while sustaining, and even improving, the health of our environment has never been more critical. Consequently, a comprehensive examination of our current food system appears a reasonable and warranted endeavor.
The International Comestibles Management (ICM) Committee challenges your team to re-imagine and reprioritize our food systems through development of a model. While the ICM committee is leaving it up to your team to decide what aspects of these systems deserve to be the focus of your modeling activities, you should provide a food system model that is robust enough to be able to be adjusted to optimize for various levels of efficiency, profitability, sustainability, and / or equity.
Regardless of how globally or locally you focus, food systems are complex. Some questions you should consider include, but are not limited to:
The ICM Committee, an interdisciplinary and diverse group from the fields of environmental science, nutrition policy and science, government, and mathematics, looks forward to your final report.
Your PDF solution of no more than 25 total pages should include:
Note: New for 2021! The ICM Contest now has a 25-page limit. All aspects of your submission count toward the 25-page limit: Summary Sheet, Table of Contents, Main Body of Solution, Images and Tables, Reference List, and any Appendices.
Glossary
Food Insecure: Being without reliable access to sufficient affordable and nutritious food. This can be a result of food scarcity.
Food Scarcity: When sufficient quantities of food and nutrients are not available to sustain the local population. Scarcity may be due to not enough food produced or from uneven distribution of resources.
Cited References
Note that we provide the following as citations to support the Problem Statement. We have pulled the important ideas from these resources. Although your team may use these sources, access is not required to complete the problem. Instead, your team is encouraged to look for other sources to support your work. Ensure you cite any ideas or materials from outside sources used in your report.
[1]: Food, United Nations. Retrieved from: https://www.un.org/en/sections/issues-depth/food/index.html
[2]: World Hunger, Poverty Facts, Statistics 2018 – World Hunger News, World Hunger News, 2018. Retrieved from: https://www.worldhunger.org/world-hunger-and-poverty-facts-and-statistics/
[3]: The 2021 Food Systems Summit, United Nations, 2020. Retrieved from: https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/food-systems-summit-2021/
最近发生的事件向我们表明,我们的全球粮食系统并不稳定,即使在世界上粮食系统总体上服务良好的地区也是如此。造成这些不稳定的部分原因是我们目前的全球体系,即庞大的国家和国际粮食生产商和分销商。这种粮食体系使粮食的生产和分配相对廉价和高效,从而表明当前的这种模式优先考虑效率和利润。
尽管这一系统效率高,但据联合国估计,全世界仍有 8.21 亿人遭受饥饿[1],尽管生产的粮食足以养活世界上的每一个人。[2] 粮食不安全人口,即那些无法获得足够的负担得起的营养食品的人,生活在各大洲、每个国家和每个社区。即使在富裕国家,也存在粮食匮乏地区,无法获得足够数量的粮食和营养物质。此外,当前的粮食系统留下了巨大的环境足迹,占 "温室气体排放量的 29%,......高达 80% 的生物多样性丧失,80% 的森林砍伐,以及 70% 的淡水使用量。"[^3] 随着全球人口的不断增长,我们所经历的数十年环境破坏所造成的影响也在不断增加,在生产更多粮食的同时维持甚至改善环境健康的能力变得前所未有的重要。因此,对我们当前的粮食系统进行全面审查似乎是一项合理和必要的工作。
国际合作管理(ICM)委员会向您的团队提出挑战,要求他们通过开发一个模型来重新构想我们的粮食系统并重新确定其优先次序。虽然 ICM 委员会让你们的团队自行决定这些系统的哪些方面应成为建模活动的重点,但你们应提供一个足够强大的粮食系统模型,以便能够进行调整,优化各种水平的效率、盈利能力、可持续性和/或公平性。
无论您将重点放在全球还是地方,粮食系统都是复杂的。您应该考虑的一些问题包括但不限于
ICM 委员会是一个来自环境科学、营养政策与科学、政府和数学等领域的跨学科、多元化小组,它期待着您的最终报告。
您的 PDF 解决方案总页数不超过 25 页,其中应包括
注:2021 年新规定!ICM 竞赛现在有 25 页的限制。您提交的所有内容都将计入 25 页的限制内:摘要表、目录、解决方案主体、图片和表格、参考资料列表以及任何附录。
术语表
食物无保障: 无法可靠地获得足够的、负担得起的营养食品。这可能是食物匮乏造成的。
食物匮乏: 当没有足够的食物和营养来维持当地人口的生存时。缺粮的原因可能是生产的粮食不足,也可能是资源分配不均。
引用参考文献
请注意,我们提供了以下参考文献来支持 "问题陈述"。我们从这些资源中提取了重要观点。尽管您的团队可以使用这些资源,但完成问题并不要求使用这些资源。相反,我们鼓励你的团队寻找其他资源来支持你的工作。确保引用报告中使用的任何外部来源的观点或材料。
[1]: 粮食,联合国。取自: https://www.un.org/en/sections/issues-depth/food/index.html
[2]: 2018年世界饥饿、贫困事实、统计数据--世界饥饿新闻,世界饥饿新闻,2018. 取自:https://www.worldhunger.org/world-hunger-and-poverty-facts-and-statistics/
[3]: 2021 年粮食系统首脑会议》,联合国,2020 年。取自:https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/food-systems-summit-2021/
What does it mean for a nation to have a healthy, sustainable higher education system? What issues matter? Is it cost, access, equity, funding, value of a degree, quality of education, level of research, exchange of ideas of the world’s brightest minds, some of the above, all of the above, or something else altogether?
A system of higher education is an important element in a nation’s efforts to further educate its citizens beyond required primary and secondary education, and therefore has value both as an industry itself and as a source of trained and educated citizens for the nation’s economy. As we look around the world from Germany to the United States to Japan to Australia, we see a variety of national approaches to higher education, with each of these nations not only educating their own students, but also drawing large numbers of international students every year. Each of these national systems of higher education has its strengths and weaknesses, and in the wake of adjustments required during the current pandemic, nations have had the opportunity to reflect on what is working and what could be even better. However, change is often difficult. The institutional changes required to advance any system require policies implemented over an extended period of time in order to reach a more healthy and sustainable system.
In this problem, you are to develop a model to measure and assess the health of a system of higher education at a national level, to identify a healthy and sustainable state for a given nation’s higher education system, and to propose and analyze a suite of policies to migrate a nation from its current state to your proposed healthy and sustainable state.
Specifically, you are being asked to:
The ICM-F Committee, an interdisciplinary and diverse group from the fields of policy, higher education, social and political science, and mathematics, looks forward to your final report.
Your PDF solution of no more than 25 total pages should include:
Note: New for 2021! The ICM Contest now has a 25-page limit. All aspects of your submission count toward the 25-page limit: Summary Sheet, Table of Contents, Main Body of Solution, Images and Tables, Reference List, and any Appendices.
Glossary
Higher Education (post-secondary education, third-level, or tertiary education): an optional final stage of formal learning that occurs after completion of the required (many times secondary) level of education.
Sustainable System: a system that maintains its effectiveness over time.
System Health: a measure of the ability of an organization or system to align around a common vision, execute against that vision effectively, and renew itself through innovation and creative thinking.
System of Higher Education: an organizational structure that consists of higher educational institutions (colleges, universities, etc.) as well as personnel and infrastructure required to educate students beyond the secondary level.
一个国家拥有健康、可持续的高等教育体系意味着什么?哪些问题很重要?是成本、入学机会、公平性、资金、学位的价值、教育质量、研究水平、世界上最聪明的人的思想交流,还是上述某些问题、上述所有问题,抑或完全是其他问题?
高等教育体系是一个国家在必要的中小学教育之外进一步教育其公民的重要因素,因此,它既是一个产业本身,也是为国家经济培养训练有素、受过教育的公民的源泉,具有重要的价值。放眼世界,从德国到美国,从日本到澳大利亚,我们可以看到各国在高等教育方面的做法各不相同,每个国家不仅培养本国学生,每年还吸引大量留学生。每个国家的高等教育体系都有其长处和短处,在当前大流行病期间需要进行调整之后,各国都有机会反思哪些方法行之有效,哪些方法可以做得更好。然而,变革往往是困难的。推进任何系统所需的制度变革都需要在较长的时间内实施政策,以建立一个更健康、更可持续的系统。
在这个问题中,你要建立一个模型来衡量和评估一个国家高等教育系统的健康状况,确定一个国家高等教育系统的健康和可持续发展状态,并提出和分析一套政策,使一个国家从目前的状态迁移到你提出的健康和可持续发展状态。
具体来说,要求你们
ICM-F 委员会是一个来自政策、高等教育、社会和政治科学以及数学领域的跨学科和多元化小组,它期待着您的最终报告。
您的 PDF 解决方案总页数不超过 25 页,其中应包括
注:2021 年新规定!ICM 竞赛现在有 25 页的限制。您提交的所有内容都将计入 25 页的限制内:摘要表、目录、解决方案主体、图片和表格、参考资料列表以及任何附录。
术语表
高等教育(中学后教育、第三级教育或高等教育):在完成规定的(很多时候是中 等)教育水平之后,可选择的正规学习的最后阶段。
可持续系统:长期保持其有效性的系统。
系统健康:衡量一个组织或系统围绕共同愿景进行调整、有效执行该愿景以及通过 创新和创造性思维进行自我更新的能力。
高等教育系统:由高等教育机构(学院、大学等)以及教育中学以上学生所需的人 员和基础设施组成的组织结构。